Spent a couple of late nights figuring out the maths. I'm still not sure it's completely correct, but, I've managed to come up with an algorithm that gives a predicted form value for each player over the next 5 game weeks.

I'll be keeping an eye on it to see just how accurate it is. The biggest problem is that the algo depends on FPL's fixture difficulty rating. And as mentioned in previous blogs, the accuracy of this doesn't strike me as something that can be relied on.

I've stolen this from my footy group chat but it's dead on...

"Fpl fixture difficulty is 1-5 but no team ever gets given 1

Currently thinks Fulham at home are a 2 for Brentford but Fulham have just won away at Brighton and are 6th in the table

Is that the same difficulty as Brentford going away to soton, bottom of the league?

And is Liverpool away a 4 for Brentford when Brentford have taken points off city united and arsenal and Liverpool are doggers?"

Sorry to the Liverpool fans, we're all United in that group...

Again, discussed previously, this is where I need to get the odds in. The bookies will have a bit more accurate FDRs and will also take into account things like form of players and teams in other competitions. For example United winning at the weekend against Newcastle would be a big factor in their predicted form next weekend. (Had to sneak that in here, #TrustInEric - UNITED ARE BACK BABY!)

Anyway - you can check it out on the player stats table in the X-F column:

https://jamadan.com/fpl/player-stats

jamadan-dev